Social Security paid 1,685,819 Virginians in December 2024, and John McGuire's July 3, 2025 vote went to a law that, by the program's chief actuary's estimate, raises its costs by $168.6 billion over 2025 through 2034.
The cost comes from the law's lower income tax on benefits, part of which used to flow into the trust funds; the budget resolution that made room for that tax change passed in April 2025 only because McGuire voted yes. The retirement fund is now expected to run out in late 2032, three months sooner than before.
John McGuire's Votes on Social Security's Finances
- Social Security's Retirement Fund Runs Dry Three Months Sooner Under the Law McGuire Voted For in July 2025. On July 3, 2025, John McGuire voted yes on H.R. 1's final version, which the House approved 218 to 214, having already voted on May 22 for the House version that passed 215 to 214. Social Security's chief actuary wrote that "the total net increase in OASDI program cost is estimated to be $168.6 billion" from 2025 through 2034, chiefly because the trust funds collect less from taxing benefits. The retirement fund on its own is now projected to be depleted in the "fourth quarter of 2032, three months earlier than previously expected," PlanAdviser reported, and the combined retirement and disability funds moved from the third quarter of 2034 to the first.
- Retirees Face a 24% Benefit Cut Sooner Under the Law McGuire Voted For After His Deciding April 2025 Budget Vote. On April 10, 2025, the final version of H.Con.Res. 14 passed 216 to 214 with McGuire's yes, so his vote alone could have tied it, and a tie fails. Under it, the Ways and Means Committee could cut taxes enough to "increase the deficit by not more than $4,500,000,000,000", room the law used in part for the lower tax on Social Security benefits. Once the retirement trust fund is exhausted, "all retirees are projected to be subject to an immediate 24% benefit cut," the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says, a date the law has moved closer.
What John McGuire's Votes Mean for Social Security Recipients in Virginia
- 202,433 people in McGuire's district collect Social Security from a fund the law weakens. Social Security Administration figures for December 2024 list 202,433 beneficiaries in Virginia's 5th District, with 155,304 retired workers and 22,629 disabled workers among them. The retired workers' benefits come from the retirement fund the law now has running dry three months sooner.
- 1,290,319 retired Virginians draw benefits from the retirement fund that now runs out in 2032. Across Virginia, Social Security's December 2024 rolls listed 1,685,819 beneficiaries, including 1,290,319 retired workers, and the retirement fund that pays those workers is the one the law pushes to depletion in the fourth quarter of 2032.
Frequently Asked Questions About John McGuire on Social Security
What is John McGuire's record on Social Security under Trump?
John McGuire voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in May and July 2025, a law Social Security's chief actuary says increases the program's costs by $168.6 billion over ten years and moves the retirement fund's depletion to the fourth quarter of 2032. The final budget resolution, which cleared the way for those tax changes, passed in April 2025 because of his deciding vote. Social Security paid 202,433 people in his district in December 2024.
When will Social Security run short of money after John McGuire's vote?
After the law John McGuire voted for on July 3, 2025, Social Security's chief actuary projects the retirement trust fund's reserves will be exhausted late in 2032, a quarter earlier than before the law. At that point, retirees would face an immediate 24% benefit cut under current law, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects.
How much would Virginia retirees lose if Social Security runs short after John McGuire's vote?
In its state analysis, which assumes retirement benefits drop 24% across the board once the trust fund is exhausted, a date John McGuire's vote for the law moved closer, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the average affected Virginian would lose $522 a month, with 1.5 million people in the state, 16.8% of the population, affected. Total benefits in Virginia would fall by $8.9 billion a year, about 1.1% of the state's economy.
Last updated: 2026-10-27